Teak Planner : A Growth Simulator for Teak Plantations (CD)

"Teak Planner functionally is a growth simulator for teak plantations. Its scope of application is the range of growing conditions that is available in Kerala. This programme can be used to identify the optimum thinning schedule and rotation age for even-aged teak stands under a range of site quality and management levels. The optimum thinning schedule is that which maximizes the net present value of cash flows, out of a variety of possible thinning schedules in a plantation. It also enables the user to make an investment plan by providing information on Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) and Payback Period (PBP) for a range of management options. The software is also an effective tool for financial valuation of the growing stock for commercial purposes.

The input data at the first level consists of interest rate that is to be used for discounting purposes, site quality class and weeding intensity. The system can then generate mean diameter at 5 year which is the starting point of simulation assuming an initials planting intensity of 2500 trees per ha. In case, the user wants to optimize purchase cost of a plantation or maximize the returns from a purchased plantation, the corresponding input values can be entered and can proceed further. With the input data that is supplied, the program identifies the optimum thinning schedule for the stand under consideration and displays the number of trees to be retained at 5 yearly intervals with information on several associated stand features like mean diameter of trees,  volume of standing crop, accumulated yield from thinning and mean annual increment in total volume (MAI). It also displays the NPV, IRR and BCR. The optimum rotation age can then be taken as the age at which NPV reaches its maximum. This programme thus fills in the need for a self-contained user-friendly software for finding out optimum thinning schedule and associated stand features for any given stand.

One additional feature is that the user is supplied with the option of making the financial projections either under 'constant' levels of teak timber price, input cost and management interventions or under 'varying' rates. This option provides the user a whole scenario of possible projections and every time the simulator identifies the best thinning schedule to be followed to maximize the returns.

The simulator has been built using visual basic software. The equations used for projecting the different stand features were developed using long-term data gathered from permanent sample plots laid out in teak plantations in Kerala. Whole stand models based on Richards function with biologically meaningful parameters formed the basis of diameter and volume growth functions."